European Observation Room ｜ Review of US-European Relations in 2023： An EU that does not want to be marginalized
[Editor’s note]
This article is the 44th column of "European Observation Room" jointly published by Shanghai European Society and The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) "Diplomatic Scholar". On December 1st, Shanghai International Studies University and the Shanghai European Society held a conference on "Europe-America Relations Trend Report 2023" and a seminar on "Europe-America Sino-Russian Relations under the Influence of Euro-American Transatlantic Relations", at which the Annual Report on Europe-America Relations Trend 2023 (hereinafter referred to as "Report") was released.
After the twists and turns from Obama to Biden, the relationship between Europe and the United States has taken an obvious turning point under the pressure of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. By 2023, the relationship between the two sides has entered a relatively stable year. Just as the president of the Shanghai European Society,Ding Chun, a professor at Fudan University, wrote a preface for the Report, saying that the differences between the United States and Europe have not disappeared under the relatively stable pattern of the United States dominating Europe, but they should not be exaggerated. However, in specific topics and national relations, the relationship between the United States and Europe shows different forms and characteristics, which also leaves room for China to develop specific relations and realize national interests. A more timely and detailed study of the United States and Europe is of greater significance at present. The "European Observatory" recently published some articles in the Report.
The year 2023 is an important year for the world to get rid of the shadow of the COVID-19 epidemic, and it is also a year in which the Ukrainian crisis presents a long-term and complicated situation. Judging from the political and diplomatic relations between the European Union and the United States, the two sides continued to maintain the institutionalized and normalized dialogue and coordination after Biden took office, but the inherent differences of interests began to re-emerge as the "honeymoon period" aimed at repairing the alliance gradually passed. At the same time, in the face of regional hot issues such as the Ukrainian crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States and Europe share common positions, but there are also differences in attitudes. Consultations between the two sides on these hot issues are becoming more and more frequent.
1. Normalization and institutionalization of EU-US political and diplomatic interaction
In 2023, the political and diplomatic interaction between the EU and the United States includes not only the exchange of visits and consultations between European and American leaders, but also the meetings and exchanges between the two sides on multilateral occasions.
On March 10th, 2023, in Washington, USA, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with US President Biden. 澎湃 image data map
From a bilateral perspective, on March 10th, 2023, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the United States and met with Biden. On October 20, 2023, President Michelle and Ursula von der Leyen of the European Council visited Washington, D.C., and jointly held the second US-EU summit with US President Biden, and issued a joint statement after the meeting. In addition, other senior officials of both sides also interact frequently. For example, in early April 2023, US Secretary of State Blinken and EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs borrell co-chaired the EU-U.S. Energy Council)； in Brussels; At the end of May, several executive vice-presidents of the European Commission, together with officials such as Blinken, Minister of Commerce and Trade Representative, held the fourth ministerial meeting of the Euro-American Trade and Technology Council. On June 22, 2023, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Newland and Secretary-General of the European External Action Agency Stefano Sannino co-chaired the second dialogue between the United States and Europe on China and the fourth high-level consultation on the so-called "Indo-Pacific region".
At the multilateral level, the interaction between Europe and the United States mainly includes Biden’s trip to Europe in mid-July to attend the NATO summit in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, a Baltic country, and the EU, as a key partner of NATO, was also invited to attend the summit. The G-7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan in May 2023 and the 18th summit of G-20 leaders held in New Delhi in September also became important platforms for Biden to communicate with Michelle and Ursula von der Leyen who were invited to attend the meeting. It can be said that these annual and institutionalized bilateral dialogues and multilateral meetings have become the main channels for normalized exchanges and consultations between the EU and the United States.
On October 20th, 2023, local time, the US-EU summit was held in Washington, USA. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Michelle met with US President Biden. 澎湃 image data map
Second, the main topics and purposes of EU-US political and diplomatic interaction
Judging from the content involved, the political and diplomatic interaction between the EU and the United States in 2023 mainly revolves around the following two goals.
First of all,Maintain the consistency of the positions of the United States and Europe on major hot issues and ensure the continuity and stability of the US commitment.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered the second year, and the stalemate in the war indicates that this conflict will develop in a long-term and complicated direction. This makes the EU particularly worried that the United States will waver in any form on the Ukrainian issue, otherwise it will lead the EU and its member States to "fight alone" in the action of "supporting Ukraine and curbing Russia". For example, in October 2023, the US Congress failed to approve a new round of aid to Ukraine in time due to domestic political struggles, which caused great concern in the EU. During the Third European Political Community Leaders’ Meeting, borrell made it clear that "Europe can certainly not replace the United States" on the question of whether Europe can fill the gap in American aid to Ukraine. Therefore, the commitment of continuous assistance to Ukraine has become the core content of every dialogue between the United States and Europe. For example, in the joint statement issued after the second US-EU summit, the two sides once again stressed that long-term political, financial, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine will not waver. The two sides stood shoulder to shoulder and demanded that Russia end the war and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw its troops and equipment from internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. Moreover, the two sides have also given a unified attitude towards other political solutions to the Ukrainian issue proposed by all parties in the international community, that is, any proposal to pursue comprehensive, just and lasting peace must be based on complete respect for Ukraine’s independence.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict that broke out in October, like the Ukrainian issue, occurred in the surrounding areas of the EU, which once again posed a serious security threat to the EU. Therefore, the coordination of positions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become another important issue of regional security in the United States and Europe. In the above-mentioned joint statement, Europe and the United States not only recognized Israel’s right to self-defense, but also emphasized the premise of "conforming to international law, including humanitarian law" and the importance of protecting civilians and ensuring corresponding material supply channels. This joint statement can be regarded as the strengthening of position coordination between the United States and Europe, and the rectification of the "one-sided" attitude and "unreserved solidarity" towards Israel in the early stage of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Secondly,The United States and Europe hold consultations around the differences of interests, hoping to achieve the coordination of US and European policies and the compatibility of interests.In the second half of 2022, the Biden administration of the United States promulgated the Inflation Reduction Act, which plans to provide subsidies and tax incentives worth $369 billion for green technologies. These preferential measures will only be given to those related enterprises that have settled in the United States for manufacturing. This legislation immediately triggered strong dissatisfaction and worry in the European Union, fearing that the US bill would lead to a large outflow of domestic industrial capacity in Europe and cause a huge blow to the European economy. Therefore, the purpose of Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to the United States on March 10, 2023 was to negotiate with Biden on the Inflation Reduction Act, hoping to push the United States to make corresponding amendments and adjustments, but in vain.
In addition to the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration of the United States has successively issued a series of policies and bills to activate the development of specific industries in the country, such as the Chip and Science Act (August 2022), the National Defense Production Act (June 2022), and the Infrastructure Investment and Employment Act (November 2021). Faced with these competitive modes, mainly through tax reduction or exemption, loans or subsidies, the European Union successively launched the Green Deal Industrial Plan, the Clean Zero Industry Act and the Key Raw Materials Act in 2023 as a response, relaxing the restrictions on subsidies provided by member States to specific industries, strengthening the requirements for the proportion of production capacity within the region, and improving the investment environment for green technology production. As the global governance issue of climate change is more and more closely related to the production capacity and social employment of various countries, the compatibility of industrial policies, economic legislation and economic stimulus measures is increasingly appearing in the political dialogue and consultation agenda between the United States and Europe. Similarly, such issues also dominated the second summit between the two major EU leaders and the Biden administration in October. However, the two sides failed to reach an agreement on the export tariff agreement for steel and aluminum.
Furthermore,The EU urgently needs to ensure that it will not be marginalized in the tripartite game between China, the United States and Europe.Ensure that US-European interaction takes precedence over Sino-US interaction. The joint statement issued by the two sides after the second EU-US summit clearly stated that they are using various bilateral and multilateral platforms to discuss their China policies. On the one hand, both sides are ready to build a constructive and stable relationship with China, recognizing the importance and necessity of strengthening China’s cooperation in the fields of climate change, biodiversity, debt sustainability, global public health governance, macroeconomic stability, etc., but on the other hand, both sides also emphasize the importance of risk reduction and diversification of the industrial chain and the necessity of protecting certain advanced technologies. In addition, the two sides have once again expressed their common position and principles on the Taiwan Strait issue, the situation in the South China Sea, Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, and the Ukrainian issue. From the time point of view, the interaction between the United States and Europe on China policy was earlier than the San Francisco meeting between the top leaders of China and the United States on November 15, 2023 and the China-EU Summit held in Beijing on December 7, 2023, achieving the goal of giving priority to coordination.
Third, the future prospect of EU-US political and diplomatic relations
Under the background of the persistent game between big countries, frequent and difficult regional conflicts, and increasingly urgent global governance issues, the political and diplomatic interaction between the EU and the United States is one of the main ways to maintain the stability and unity of transatlantic relations, expand their voice and influence in the international community, and maintain the dominance of Western alliance relations in international affairs. However, the seemingly solid alliance is also facing many challenges. Therefore, the political and diplomatic interaction between the United States and Europe is also a mirror that reflects the differences in positions and interests between the two sides. Despite the frequent political and diplomatic interactions between the EU and the United States since Biden took office recently, whether this seemingly solid alliance can continue to be consolidated and enhanced in the future depends on many uncertain factors in the era of chaos.
First of all,The future direction of US-European relations is closely related to the internal political game between the two sides.From the perspective of the United States, the presidential election in 2024 has already begun. The possibility of Trump’s comeback should not be underestimated. The foreign policy of the United States has been changing with the change of president. For example, the climate policy of the United States has undergone several rounds of general adjustment from the Clinton administration to the Biden administration. This undoubtedly affects the nerves of European allies on the other side of the Atlantic. From the perspective of the EU, under the complicated and special mechanism of the EU, there are different opinions between leaders of different institutions and between different member States on important issues such as US-Europe relations and regional conflicts, which affect the unity and consistency of the EU’s foreign policy. For example, the differences between Ursula von der Leyen, Michelle and borrell have been exposed quite openly for many times. Ursula von der Leyen’s overly pro-American stance and strong stance in the field of EU diplomacy have earned him the title of "American agent" inside and outside the EU. The year 2024 will be the election year for the European Parliament and the appointment year for three important figures, namely, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council and the High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs. Their views on Europe’s position and role in the international order and US-Europe relations will have an important impact on the future US-Europe relations.
Secondly,Whether the differences in economic and security interests between the United States and Europe are enlarged or narrowed will also profoundly affect the political and diplomatic relations between the two sides.From the perspective of economic interests, Germany, the economic engine of the European Union, is experiencing a difficult transition period of industrial structure and energy structure. A series of economic stimulus measures with obvious protectionism in the United States have seriously damaged the economic development prospects of Germany and even the whole European Union, which has further widened the differences of interests between the United States and Europe in the fields of economy, trade and investment and interfered with the synchronization of political and diplomatic actions between the United States and Europe. From the perspective of security interests, the long-term and complicated conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to different views in the west on how to end the conflict, which will also interfere with the consistency of the positions of both sides and the efficiency of their actions.
(Long Jing, deputy director of European Studies Center of Shanghai Institute of International Studies. The original title of this article is "Review of European and American Political and Diplomatic Relations", and now the title is drafted by the editor. )