Financial expert： ＂The adjustment period of the property market may exceed two years＂

　　The recent changes in the real estate market attract people’s attention.

　　Previously, house prices showed a downward trend, and the "inflection point theory" surged; Recently, various places have introduced real estate "rescue" policies, and whether the house price has stopped falling has become the focus. China Bank Institute of International Finance recently released a research report saying that the domestic real estate market will turn from the current "stagflation" to the downward stage dominated by cyclical factors. It is estimated that in the next two years, the national housing prices will drop by 10%, and the highest drop may reach 30%. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance on October 22nd, since yesterday, the tax policy of individual housing transactions has been adjusted to reduce the taxes and fees for housing transactions.

　　What is the future trend of the real estate market? Will house prices fall further and how long will the market adjustment last? Yi Xianrong, a well-known economist and researcher at the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, visited the live broadcast room of Guangzhou Daily Beijing News yesterday to comment on the housing market’s "bailout" and property prices, and exchanged views with netizens.

　　Bank loss-making business

　　May not actively implement the New Deal.

　　Despite the turbulent arguments about the "turning point" of the housing market, Yi Xianrong said that no one around him would buy a house, because the real estate market still needs to be adjusted, and it is best not to act casually without seeing the situation clearly.

　　Then, does the recent new government policy for the real estate market help the real estate market to "pick up"? Yi Xianrong, for example, said, "The recently introduced policy is such a concept, assuming that the base point of our house price is now 100, then, in fact, the psychological price for residents to buy a house is about 30~40. The government’s policy is actually to help the people reach the basic point of 100. The policy tone is to encourage consumers to buy a house, but the ladder is too short and may only climb five points. "

　　In addition, he also said that another key issue is that the new policy looks very good, interest rates and credit are very favorable. For residents who buy the first house, the mortgage interest rate is lowered by 0.7, but the cost interest rate of banks is higher than 0.7. This means that the more banks do mortgage losses, the more they lose. Although this is a good thing for ordinary people, it is a question whether banks are willing to do it.

　　This round of housing prices fell.

　　Has little to do with the subprime mortgage crisis.

　　The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused the global economy to encounter downside risks. Is this macroeconomic environment an important reason for the decline in housing prices? Yi Xianrong believes that the decline in China’s real estate prices has little to do with the US subprime mortgage crisis.

　　"The main reason for this round of housing prices is that in the past few years, the government’s goal for the development of the real estate market was not clear, and the speculation in the real estate market and the demand for buying houses overlapped. Due to the low loan interest rate and few restrictions on buyers, many investors are desperately speculating, which eventually leads to soaring prices. "

　　Yi Xianrong said that the most crucial point is that real estate developers should reduce profits so that most ordinary people can afford to buy houses. Only when houses become popular products and everyone has consumer demand will the market gradually heat up. "Compared with other markets, the real estate market has its particularity. Since there has been a boom period of nearly 10 years, there will probably be a long adjustment period, and this round of adjustment will not be completed within one or two years. Of course, it also depends on the changes in the international economic situation and the economic situation in China.

　　Yi Xianrong believes that the stock market downturn has a greater impact on the real estate market. The sharp decline in the stock index has caused many investors’ property to shrink, and led to a great reduction in the flow of funds to the real estate market. If the stock market cannot be effectively adjusted, it is difficult to change the pattern of the real estate market. "So we must let the stock market have upside." In the last round of housing price increase, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are undoubtedly the three regions that attract attention in China. Among the three regions, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places adjusted their house prices earlier and faster. Yi Xianrong said that in this round of adjustment, one is because the house prices in this region rose rapidly last year, and the other is because the real estate enterprises in Guangdong have already entered the adjustment cycle. "I don’t think local governments such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen need to intervene in the adjustment of the real estate market."

　　Xi’ an provident fund loan

　　Limit the settlement within 7 days

　　According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance on October 22nd, since yesterday, the tax policy of individual housing transactions has been adjusted to reduce the taxes and fees for housing transactions. The Ministry of Finance announced on the 22nd that from November 1, 2008, the deed tax rate will be reduced to 1% for individuals who purchase ordinary houses of 90 square meters or less for the first time. Temporary exemption from stamp duty on individual sales or purchase of housing; Temporary exemption from land value-added tax on individual housing sales.

　　According to CCTV reports, the Xi ‘an Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Shaanxi Province recently issued a regulation that individual housing provident fund loans that meet the loan conditions and have complete procedures are limited to seven days. (Zhongxin)

　　You don’t have to pay deed tax to buy a house?

　　The reporter found that it was just a discount for developers in disguise.

　　A few days ago, a real estate developer advertised "zero deed tax" for buying a house. Some citizens have doubts: Is zero deed tax an illegal operation? Can I still get the deed tax invoice? For this reason, the reporter learned from the developers and relevant departments that the original zero deed tax is only a form of disguised discount, not without tax.

　　A few days ago, a special report in the newspaper that said "zero deed tax" attracted the attention of Ms. Li, a citizen. I saw that the home buyers who subscribed for the products of the real estate developer were given a "zero deed tax" discount. For example, if you buy a 95-square-meter three-bedroom apartment, the down payment will be about 270,000 yuan and the deed tax will be about 13,500 yuan before the introduction of the new real estate policy. And participating in the "zero deed tax" activity of real estate developers can immediately reduce the deed tax of 13,500 yuan. In this regard, Ms. Li has a question: "Can the deed tax be reduced or exempted by real estate developers? Is there any invoice for tax exemption? "

　　On October 22, the state issued a new policy of purchasing houses, adjusted the individual purchase policy, and reduced some taxes and fees, among which the deed tax for the first purchase of houses below 90 square meters was reduced to 1%. It can be seen that the state does not have a policy of free deed tax. Then, is the "zero deed tax" activity of real estate developers illegal?

　　"According to laws and regulations, real estate developers have no right to avoid deed tax." Relevant tax officials told reporters that according to the current provisional regulations on deed tax, the units and individuals who bear the transfer of land and housing ownership in China must pay deed tax.

　　The reporter called a real estate company’s real estate for consultation, and the staff who answered the phone explained to the reporter that the so-called "zero deed tax" is actually a form of discount, "that is, we deduct the cost of paying deed tax from the house price. But in fact, you still have to pay the deed tax. " The staff said that developers will not pay the deed tax on their behalf, and buyers should pay the deed tax on their own. "The deed tax invoice is of course there." The person added.

　　Four cases of deed tax reduction and exemption

　　(a) state organs, institutions, social organizations and military units that inherit land and houses for office, teaching, medical care, scientific research and military facilities shall be exempted;

　　(two) urban workers in accordance with the provisions of the first purchase of public housing, shall be exempted;

　　(three) if the house is repurchased due to the loss of the house due to force majeure, the reduction or exemption shall be granted as appropriate;

　　(4) Other items of deed tax reduction or exemption as stipulated by the Ministry of Finance. (Zhao Linlin He Yingsi)

　　Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, was named as the "real estate civilian spokesman". He once said that the real estate industry in the mainland is a profiteering industry. "Most of the rich people are doing real estate, and the real estate industry has created a bunch of top rich people at a rapid pace."

　　The stock market has wiped out China’s assets. Basically, all the rich people are in the stock market. Now the stock market has dropped by 80%, and some stocks have dropped by 90%. Do you still have money to buy a house? Definitely not.

　　-Yi Xianrong

Editor: Li Erqing