On Israel’s Two Major Goals

　　Since Israel launched the ground military action against Gaza, people began to ask: What is Israel’s ultimate goal? Will it repeat the anticlimactic invasion of Lebanon in 2006?

　　The declared Israeli goal is to completely eliminate Hamas’s rocket attack capability. This seems reasonable and acceptable to the international community, because it is Hamas that refused to extend the cease-fire agreement and launched the rocket attack first, and it seems that it is self-inflicted that the Israeli army retaliated.

　　But judging from the statements of the Israeli and American governments, it seems that Israel will not be satisfied with such a short-term goal. Israeli Foreign Minister Livni said, "There is no doubt that as long as Hamas controls the Gaza, it is a problem for Israel." Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Ramon even publicly stated on TV, "I think what we need to do is to achieve such a situation that we will not allow Hamas to continue to rule Gaza. This is the most important thing." The United States seems to have acquiesced in this. Both Bush and Rice have stated that what the United States is seeking is not a return to the status quo, but a "long-term sustainable ceasefire". Therefore, overthrowing Hamas is the main goal of this Israeli military action. Israel’s intention is to make the Palestinians in Gaza understand that it is Hamas’s extreme policy that has brought them misery and suffering today.

　　Israel doesn’t seem to be too worried about repeating the mistake of invading Lebanon in 2006, because the two are incomparable: the terrain in southern Lebanon is complex, and it borders Syria, so it is difficult to block the supply of weapons. And Gaza is a tiny place in Ma Pingchuan, which is easy to cut off; Egypt, a neighboring country to the south, said that it would not open the border with Gaza unless Abbas took over, and Hamas’s arms import could only be carried out illegally through the underground. Therefore, Defense Minister Barak dares to bet that although the task is difficult, it can be successful. Secondly, Israel is facing an election crisis, so all factions are competing to be tough and want to win the support of voters. Thirdly, Israel also wants to make up for its defeat in the previous war against Lebanon with this success, so as to rebuild its military deterrence in the region, make an example of it, and deter potential provocations in the future.

　　However, once a war breaks out, its process may not necessarily develop according to the wishes of the combatants, and the Iraq war can be an example. The consequences of this Israeli military action cannot but be worrying. This escalating military action first put moderate Arab governments in a dilemma. Although they initially condemned Hamas for launching rocket attacks, they were not only unable to express sympathy for Israel in the face of the rising anti-Israel sentiment, but were widely criticized for their weak attitude towards Israel. Now they have to condemn Israel’s invasion, which is of course not conducive to improving relations between Israel and the Arab world.

　　Secondly, perhaps the Israelis thought that overthrowing Hamas would be the strongest support for the Lord and sending Abbas. But for the same reason, Abbas will never return to Gaza behind Israeli military vehicles, and he will be regarded as a national traitor. In this case, any compromise or friendly move towards Israel becomes even more impossible. Abbas has announced that it will suspend the continuation of peace talks with the Israelis. More importantly, civilian casualties caused by bombing and invasion will only aggravate Palestinians’ hatred of Israel, make teenagers more radical and even be recruited by terrorist organizations. Therefore, although Hamas may suffer heavy losses in terms of organization and military strength, from the perspective of public opinion, the Israeli invasion may help Hamas consolidate its influence among the people.

　　From this point of view, the short-term goal of Israel’s military action, that is, to destroy its rocket depot and weapons delivery channel, so as to stop, at least reduce, rocket attacks, seems to be possible. However, its long-term goal, that is, to eradicate Hamas, is difficult to achieve by force alone in the short term, unless it is determined to implement long-term occupation and direct rule. But this prospect seems unimaginable.

Editor: Liu Haifeng